In the lead-up to the 2025 midterm elections, the brothers of Senator Raffy Tulfo are leading the most recent OCTA Research Senate preference poll. The poll, conducted from August 28 to September 2, found that 60% of respondents supported Rep. Erwin Tulfo, the ACT-CIS Party-list representative and current House Deputy Majority Leader. His brother, Ben Tulfo, followed closely with 57% support.
Former Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III came in third with 50% of the vote, followed by Sen. Bong Go with 49%. Other notable contenders include Sen. Bong Revilla and former senator Panfilo Lacson, both with 44%, Sen. Pia Cayetano with 35%, Sen. Francis Tolentino with 34%, and former senator Manny Pacquiao, also with 34%.
Senators Lito Lapid, Imee Marcos, and former President Rodrigo Duterte, who each received 33%, complete the “Magic 12.”
Just outside the top 12, but still within statistical chances of winning, are Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa (29%), Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos (28%), and social media personality Dr. Willie Ong (28%). Several current senators, including Go, Revilla, Cayetano, Tolentino, Marcos, Lapid, and dela Rosa, are eligible to run for re-election.
Notable politicians trailing behind the leading contenders include former senator Gregorio Honasan II, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, Makati Mayor Abby Binay, Davao Rep. Paolo Duterte, television host Willie Revillame, former Senate President Franklin Drilon, and former senator Richard Gordon.
Opposition candidates, including former senators Francis Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, as well as human rights lawyer Chel Diokno, garnered less than 10% support. Within the Makabayan bloc, ACT Teachers Party-list Rep. France Castro received 2%, while former Bayan Muna congressman Neri Colmenares received 6%.
Although former President Duterte has consistently performed well in previous surveys, it is still unclear whether he will run for the Senate. Speculation about his potential candidacy, as well as that of his sons, has intensified since the breakup of the UniTeam tandem between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.
Makati Mayor Abby Binay, who is term-limited, is being considered as a potential candidate for the administration coalition. Her sister, Sen. Nancy Binay, is considering a run for Makati mayor, which could lead to a political race against Abby’s husband, Rep. Luis Campos.
Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar is also seen as a potential Senate candidate, as her mother, Sen. Cynthia Villar, nears the end of her term. Camille’s brother, Mark Villar, is currently serving his first term as senator after being elected in 2022. The non-commissioned OCTA survey included 1,200 adult respondents and has a margin of error of ±3%.
